“Pre-Mortem” — Creekside Ice Bowl
“We were having a pot-luck lunch and a disc golf tournament broke out…!”
I remember the first time I played in an Ice Bowl. It was here are Creekside in 2016 or 2017. There was 6”+ of snow on the ground. My girlfriend thought I was crazy (actually, she had already established that fact… I was just confirming what she already knew!) I arrived with a crockpot of “Jack Daniels Chili” in hand (extra fortified — as I was to find out later…) and no idea what to expect.
And then the fun began. So much so that I have made it a point to attend every Creekside Ice bowl that I could possible manage (and I think that I’ve only missed one since then.)
Creekside DGC is in Ridley Park along the Conodoguinet Creek in Camp Hill, Pa. It is a par 56 course (Main Layout) with lots of OB to worry about — in addition to the creek itself. It’s a shorter course (~5300ft.), but it’s layout provides quite a few challenges to the beginning and intermediate players.
I have quite a few rated and recorded rounds at this course, so my personal data should be fairly robust.
Course Stats
Here are the distance stats from UDisc for each hole:
Course Data
My current course data is drawn from 9 years of tournament data from the PDGA website. It averages the round ratings across all of the sanctioned tournaments in that timeframe and for this layout, and dumps out statistics for the course. This is what it looks like:
Given that I would like to consistently hit a 930+ rating on my rounds, I would need to throw a 4-under (52) round to hit that mark.
So this is my goal -- 4 under par.
My Data
As of today, my personal data for Creekside (Main Layout) consists of 19 recorded and rated rounds. This is the summary data:
Explaination:
Current Average My average for that hole across all of my recorded rounds
Optimistic The above average rounded down
Pessimistic The above average rounded up
Rounded The above average rounded numerically (.5 rounds up)
Reasonable My best guess at what I *should* score on this hole
Current Target What I would *like* to score on this hole (usually, but not always, the same as the "Reasonable" score above.)
Tumbling Down the Rabbit Hole
I look at each hole individually and gauge my score probability based on hole distance and elevation change, and my score on that hole from my previous rounds. I have played more thank a few rounds on this course, so I'll also factor in what I know about how I throw the hole.
Hole 1 - 167 ft - Par 3
”Ace-Hunting” has caused me to miss the birdie on this hole more often than I care to admit. Play it conservatively, get the birdie, and move on to the next.
Expected Score: 2Hole 2 - 195 ft - Par 3
”Second Verse, Same as the First!” Tried to get “cute” on this hole in the past as well, and paid the price in strokes. Play this one the same as the first hole, and the odds are good that I could be -2 after the first two holes.
Expected Score: 2Hole 3 - 362 ft - Par 3
I’m not going to reach this pin from the tee pad any time soon. Recently, throwing the forehand line has brought the creek into play way too often, so, unless the backhand is COMPLETELY off, backhand a driver to the right of the fairway tree, and get up and down for a par.
Expected Score: 3Hole 4 - 253 ft - Par 3
The “danger ditch” is gone, so all that I need to avoid is skipping into the creek. As long as I don’t get too aggressive, I should be able to get past this one without doing any damage.
Expected Score: 3Hole 5 - 242 ft - Par 3
The tree branches in the fairway are more of an issue than the creek to the left. Miss the branches without fading too much or pushing too straight, and this one should be a birdie.
Expected Score: 2Hole 6 - 286 ft - Par 3
At 286ft. and slightly downhill, I should reach this pin with a full pull — but I never do. Skip the frustration spiral, get a par, and move on.
Expected Score: 3Hole 7 - 194 ft - Par 3
Repeat after me: “Wider. Is. Better.” Don’t miss the left side mando by not putting your shot wide enough — just let the Anvil do it’s job and don’t try to cut this line to close.
Expected Score: 2Hole 8 - 208 ft - Par 3
Site of the infamous “What the Hell am I Doing Wrong?!” image. Don’t be concerned about the late-flight fade, just make the mando and progress down the fairway. There’s no need to get too aggressive here — that only leads to mistakes.
Expected Score: 3Hole 9 - 503 ft - Par 4
Depending on the pin position, this is either a soft par four, or a legit par 3. Either way, a full drive with a slightly overstable disc will put me in position to complete the front 9 with a 3.
Expected Score: 3Hole 10 - 339 ft - Par 3
I’m finally admitting that I can’t reach this pin on my drive. Stay right, but not so far as to bring the trees and the creek into play, and that will make the approach a bit easier.
Expected Score: 3Hole 11 - 275 ft - Par 3
This hole feels shorter than 275ft., but the mando gets in my head, and then bad things happen. Just drive straight down the fairway and forget about the mando (and the trees… and the creek…). This should be a fairly easy birdie, but, in the words of the immortal Sergeant Phil Esterhaus; “Hey, let’s be careful out there.”
Expected Score: 2Hole 12 - 308 ft - Par 3
This is another “Admit that you can’t reach it right now” fairway, with so much trouble right and left that a “putter, putter, putter” play makes sense. (Granted, in my case it would be “midrange, midrange, midrange”, but you get the idea.
Expected Score: 3Hole 13 - 499 ft - Par 4
I have lost more strokes on this hole than any other on the course. As long as I get off the teepad cleanly, I should be fine. Depending on my level of comfort, either a midrange or fairway backhand down the right gap to start, then work the rest of the hole as necessary.
Expected Score: 4Hole 14 - 275 ft - Par 3
If the pin is in it’s “straight ahead” position, this play is pretty straightforward (heh!); but if the pin is in the left position, just play an overstable midrange to the middle of the “straight” fairway, then punch through the treeline and don’t mess around with this one.
Expected Score: 3Hole 15 - 256 ft - Par 3
The pin position will dictate the second shot, but the first should be a high backhand drive into the trees. Don’t be aggressive here — the odds of a bad result are too high. Play for par.
Expected Score: 3Hole 16 - 328 ft - Par 3
The left OB line has disc magnets installed, so be careful with the drive. It’s probably safer to short the drive and make a careful up-and-down par.
Expected Score: 3Hole 17 - 396 ft - Par 3
Play the forehand drive wider than you think; the “guardian bush” on the right has your name on it! This one is a par all day, so don’t sweat it.
Expected Score: 3Hole 18 - 206 ft - Par 3
If the island is in play, drive with the Stag; otherwise, drive with the other Stag (#1 is stable, #2 is less-than-stable). Don’t get greedy, but this one should be a birdie.
Expected Score: 2
Expected score: -7 (49)
Avg. Historical Rating: 966.
Just like my last tournament, this seems to indicate that I can shoot a personal best round.
Well, maybe I can.
That is the purpose behind the plan; short-circuit the frustration before it begins, set expectations at a reasonable level, and focus on execution and minimizing mistakes.
And eating some darn good chili!!