“Pre-Mortem” — The Geibel Classic
Preparation For the First Tournament of the 2026 Season
Ah, 2026. It's finally here.
Another tournament season has ended -- and, from my perspective at least, "good riddance!" Last year wasn't the most auspicious for my game -- as I have already talked about. My rating dropped 6 points since November of 2024. My average driving distance is down, my putting percentage is down, and my mental game took a serious hit. And, after some serious soul-searching, I realized that it was the mental side of my game that was the biggest culprit.
So it was time to "extract my head from my backside" -- but that's a topic for another time.
The first tournament of the season is almost here -- the Geibel Classic at D. F. Buchmiller Park in Lancaster, Pa. This is a tournament that I have won in the past (although not recently) on a course that served as my first training ground. The course hasn't change much since I started playing, so I know the course very well -- which is both a blessing and a curse. My memory is filled with images of what I USED to be able to do on these fairways -- things that changes in mechanics and strength make more challenging then they used to be.
But again -- that story is for another time.
Buchmiller Park is a par 54, "birdie-or-die" course, with mostly open fairways, a few changes in elevation, and not much else in the way of obstacles. I have plenty of data (because that's who I am!) from tournament and personal rounds on this course going back 10 years, so between that and my memories of the hundreds of practice and league rounds played there over the years, prepping for this tournament should be a breeze.
Until it isn't.
Part of my new mental space is changing my expectations of play away from remembered rounds and back to reasonable and logical capabilities based on where my game is RIGHT NOW.
Course Stats
First, I pull distance stats from UDisc for each hole as my first data set:
Course Data
My current course data is drawn from 4 years of tournament data from the PDGA website. It averages the round ratings across all of the sanctioned tournaments in that timeframe, and dumps out statistics for the course. This is what it looks like:
Given that I would like to consistently hit a 930+ rating on my rounds, I would need to throw a 5-under (49) round to hit that mark.
So this is where I start -- with a target of 5 under par.
My Data
Since Buchmiller DGC is a course that I have played many times -- and have recorded rounds in my data, I can pull statistics from that database as well.
Explaination:
Current Average My average for that hole across all of my recorded rounds
Optimistic The above average rounded down
Pessimistic The above average rounded up
Rounded The above average rounded numerically (.5 rounds up)
Reasonable My best guess at what I *should* score on this hole
Current Target What I would *like* to score on this hole (usually, but not always, the same as the "Reasonable" score above.)
(Both the “Reasonable” and “Current Target” data is not accurate for this blog entry. I would explain why, but it’s too embarassing!)
Tumbling Down the Rabbit Hole
I look at each hole individually and gauge my score probability based on hole distance and elevation change, and my score on that hole from my previous rounds. Given that I have probably played more rounds on this course than any other, I'll also factor in what I know about how I throw the hole.
Hole 1 - Par 3 - 289 ft:
I should birdie this hole 90% of the time. The data tells me otherwise, but I can reach it with a fairway driver, and the shot shape fits nicely with my neutral and stable Stags.
Expected Score: 2Hole 2 - Par 3 - 286 ft:
Even though this hole is only 286ft., I never seem to get close enough for an easy putt.
Expected Score: 3Hole 3 - Par 3 - 247 ft:
The slight uphill slope and the location of the middle tree forces either a forehand roller or a touchy backhand. Like Hole #2, I rarely get close enough for a putt.
Expected Score: 3Hole 4 - Par 3 - 289 ft:
This hole slopes downhill, and really feels much shorter than 289ft. If I make a mistake on this hole, it's usually to "baby the shot" and leave myself short and obstructed by the guardian trees. So don't do that.
Expected Score: 2Hole 5 - Par 3 - 343 ft:
In my head, I park this downhill hole with a flex forehand. In reality, I haven't reached this hole in a year or two -- and then it was only about a 50% shot.
Expected Score: 3Hole 6 - Par 3 - 240 ft:
Like Hole #4, I have a tendency to baby the forehand shot and leave myself too short for a putt. This is one of those holes that triggers my frustration when I mess it up.
Expected Score: 2Hole 7 - Par 3 - 318 ft:
Uphill, under a low ceiling, then uphill again... I can play this hole either forehand (roller) or backhand (low flex), so I will use whatever seems to be working best on tournament day.
Expected Score: 3Hole 8 - Par 3 - 316 ft:
This is another hole where my memories drive my expectations instead of my knowledge of where my game is at the current moment. If I don't try to overthrow the drive, I should be fine.
Expected Score: 3Hole 9 - Par 3 - 217 ft:
This SHOULD be the 2nd-easiest hole on the course, but over-thinking and over-throwing has caused this little frustration generator to get under my skin more than a few times. I just need to get out of my head and feed the Warship down the middle.
Expected Score: 2Hole 10 - Par 3 - 221 ft:
This is the longest 221ft. hole I've ever played. It's an uphill tunnel with a low ceiling and lots of bad memories. I'm just going to play "midrange hopscotch" and play for par.
Expected Score: 3Hole 11 - Par 3 - 292 ft:
I birdie this hole often, but even though it's downhill, it's at the distance limit of my forehand (which is my play here), so I'll keep a conservative viewpoint and assume a 3.
Expected Score: 3Hole 12 - Par 3 - 226 ft:
Ah, the "Cousin It" hole -- which is a reference that only the old-heads will get. It's a touchy backhand hyzer, but perfect for my Anvil, so I'll be aggressive here.
Expected Score: 2Hole 13 - Par 3 - 204 ft:
Extremely uphill with a right side mando and OB possibilities, this one gets in my head. This will be another "midrange march" to avoid any complications.
Expected Score: 3Hole 14 - Par 3 - 259 ft:
This hole used to very difficult and require a perfectly precise backhand hyzer. Because the main tree is gone, it has become just a very hard hole that requires a slightly less precise backhand hyzer. There's too many tree-hit possibilities to count on a birdie here, so I'll just assume a par.
Expected Score: 3Hole 15 - Par 3 - 162 ft:
An obstructed and blind drive on an uphill sloping fairway to a basket with OB behind it. What could go wrong? I birdie this one quite often, so I'm going to expect to birdie it again.
Expected Score: 2Hole 16 - Par 3 - 238 ft:
The extreme uphill slope makes this 238ft fairway feel more like 338ft. No fancy expectations here -- just drive to the top of the hill, then get an up-and-down par and move on.
Expected Score: 3Hole 17 - Par 3 - 344 ft:
Every time I play this hole, I feel that I should park it. Then I get grumpy when I'm very short of the pin. Time to have my expectations match my history.
Expected Score: 3Hole 18 - Par 3 - 427 ft:
This hole really depends on the long upshot, which for me usually ends up being between 60 and 80 feet. As long as my drive doesn't go long (OB) or short (Alcatraz), I should be fine.
Expected Score: 3
Expected score: -6 (48)
Avg. Historical Rating: 946.
So my expectation is that I will throw one of the best rounds that I've ever thrown on this course.
Ha!
But it should be possible. Minimizing the mistakes and staying out of my head should get me close. Then I just need to execute my shots, be "on" with my putts, and not have any bad luck, and I should be fine.
Like I said before, what could possibly go wrong?
After The Fact
The deed is done, the tournament is over. Take a look at the Post-Mortem.