“Pre-Mortem” — Boulder Woods Ice Bowl

Another chance for improvement

Boulder Woods is one of those courses where you look at it, and mentally see yourself getting a birdie on almost every hole, then you actually play a round or two (or, in my case, about 30!), and realize that the course has something to say about those “imagined birdies” … like:

”Not so fast, my friend! I may be short, but I’m not easy!”

The Ice Bowl at Boulder Woods usually adds a bit of extra fun to the course by splitting two of the longest holes into 2 holes; usually it’s holes 5 and 16. This means that each round is a 20-hole par 60 course with all but 2 of the holes (2 and 8) at or less than 300 feet.

So this tournament should be a walk in the proverbial park, right …?

Course Stats

Here are the distance stats from UDisc for each hole:

Course Data

My current course data is drawn from 9 years of tournament data from the PDGA website. It averages the round ratings across all of the sanctioned tournaments in that timeframe and for this layout, and dumps out statistics for the course. This is what it looks like:

(Note: This data is for the normal 18-hole course. I’m not sure how the splitting on 2 holes will affect this data.)

Given that I would like to consistently hit a 930+ rating on my rounds, I would need to throw a 3-under (57) round to hit that mark.

So this is my goal -- 3 under par.

My Data

As of today, my personal data for the Boulder Woods Ice Bowl consists of 10 recorded and rated rounds. This is the summary data:

Explaination:

• Current Average My average for that hole across all of my recorded rounds

• Optimistic The above average rounded down

• Pessimistic The above average rounded up

• Rounded The above average rounded numerically (.5 rounds up)

• Reasonable My best guess at what I *should* score on this hole

• Current Target What I would *like* to score on this hole (usually, but not always, the same as the "Reasonable" score above.)

Tumbling Down the Rabbit Hole

I look at each hole individually and gauge my score probability based on hole distance and elevation change, and my score on that hole from my previous rounds. I have played more than a few rounds on this course, so I'll also factor in what I know about how I throw the hole.

• Hole 1 - 210 ft - Par 3
  Since you average more than a half stroke under par on this hole, I fully expect that you will birdie this hole. Time to be confident!
  Expected Score: 2

• Hole 2 - 318 ft - Par 3
  You never birdie this hole, but you also rarely bogie it as well. This is another hole where you should be “score-confident.”
  Expected Score: 3

• Hole 3 - 303 ft - Par 3
  This is the only “poke-and-pray” hole on the course. It has given you some trouble in the past, but as long as you don’t do anything foolish — or get incredibly unlucky — you should par this hole most of the time.
  Expected Score: 3

• Hole 4 - 209 ft - Par 3
  This hole plays longer than it looks, and the inside corner of the left dogleg is your danger zone. If you clear that, there is a great chance that you have a look at a birdie putt. You just need to make sure that your putting is on point.
  Expected Score: 2

• Hole 5a - “~250 ft” - Par 3
  This is the first “Temp” hole, a mostly blind, mostly straight shot over the crest of the slight rise that finishes left. You’ve birdied this hole a few times, but left the drive short others. “Go long” should be in your head on the drive.
  Expected Score: 2

• Hole 5b - “~275 ft” - Par 3
  The other half of the split of hole 5, this drive is open, flat, and deceptive in it’s length. Your eyes may say that you should use a fairway driver — but your arm will want a full driver. The trees near the pin are to the right of the basket, so a forehand drive is the play.
  Expected Score: 2

• Hole 6 - 241 ft - Par 3
  Your mistake on this forehand drive is, most often, not enough turn and not enough power, so you end up short and right. Play for long and left.
  Expected Score: 2

• Hole 7 - 164 ft - Par 3
  Repeat after me: “Wider. Is. Better.” Don’t miss the right side mando by not putting your shot wide and high enough — just let the Anvil do it’s job and don’t try to cut this line too close.
  Expected Score: 2

• Hole 8 - 396 ft - Par 3
  Put the distance driver back in the bag, and pull the flippy fairway driver. Throw a backhand turnover that turns a little too much (or you’ll end up in the left rough — again). Then midrange your approach and get this hole’s monkey off your back.
  Expected Score: 3

• Hole 9 - 278 ft - Par 3
  You’re not going to reach this pin, so just do the “midrange march” up the fairway and get your par. Stop losing strokes on this hole trying to get a birdie that is out of reach.
  Expected Score: 3

• Hole 10 - 283ft - Par 3
  The play here is the same as Hole 8 — a flippy fairway driver turnover to keep yourself in the fairway after cresting the hill, then a midrange upshot and walk away with a par. Play smart.
  Expected Score: 3

• Hole 11 - 256ft - Par 3
  Go back and read the play for hole 10. This one is the same thing — especially the part about “Playing smart.”
  Expected Score: 3

• Hole 12 - 308 ft - Par 3
  You’ve shorted this hole too often in the recent past. The play is a force-over forehand with the Ahti — just make sure that you give it a little more juice than you think you need.
  Expected Score: 2

• Hole 13 - 278 ft - Par 3
  Backhand fairway to the dogleg (through the double mando), then up-and-down for par. Aggressive play on this hole just leads to losing strokes. Don’t do it.
  Expected Score: 3

• Hole 14 - 287 ft - Par 3
  A flippy forehand driver off the tee should make for a simple and clean hole. You’re not reaching this one, either, so don’t do anything silly.
  Expected Score: 3

• Hole 15 - 241 ft - Par 3
  Keep the backhand midrange drive as straight as you can for as long as you can — the false corner on the left is NOT your friend. Where you land on the sloping green will dictate how aggressive your putt should be.
  Expected Score: 2

• Hole 16a - ~250 ft - Par 3
  The temp basket here is on the right, set into the brush line. You should be able to put your forehand drive onto the green. The mando on the left will probably be in play, so you’ll need to challenge it. Just don’t miss it.
  Expected Score: 2

• Hole 16b - ~200 ft - Par 3
  Depending on what feels better, this drive is either a flippy forehand or an overstable backhand. Either way, it’s a touchy shot which has given you issues in the past. Keep your focus and be precise.
  Expected Score: 2

• Hole 17 - 206 ft - Par 3
  Play the backhand midrange drive longer than you think — pushing the long side of the dogleg left. Leaving your drive short left makes the putt SO much harder.
  Expected Score: 2

• Hole 18 - 229 ft - Par 3
  This fairway requires a straight backhand fairway drive with minimal fade. Like usual, play the fairway to be longer than you think. You leave this one short too often.
  Expected Score: 2

Expected score: -12 (48)
Avg. Historical Rating: GOOD GRIEF!

The way that I’ve just laid this out, I would not only shoot a personal best, but probably compete in MPO!

Then again, this whole scenario doesn’t count for bad luck, less-than-optimal conditions, mental lapses, and other negative anomalies.

So just keep the plan in mind, leave the frustration in the car, and play with confidence.

And joy. Always with joy.